The Nobel Institute said it suspects espionage was behind a leak that revealed Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado as the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner hours before the official announcement, calling the breach “highly likely” and linked to spying.
Nobel Committee Chair Jorgen Watne Frydnes confirmed Machado’s win at a press conference in Oslo, making her the first Venezuelan and the fourth South American to receive the peace prize.
Norwegian daily Aftenposten reported that Machado’s odds of winning surged from 3.75 percent to nearly 73 percent overnight on the prediction market Polymarket, just hours before the announcement.
Several users placed large bets, including one wager of $67,820, according to Finansavisen. Three accounts reportedly earned about $27,000, with one of the accounts created on the same day the bet was made.
Neither analysts nor international media had listed Machado as a frontrunner before the announcement.
Kristian Berg Harpiken, director of the Nobel Institute and secretary of the Nobel Committee, told Norway's TV2, "Highly likely it's espionage," he said and added that the institute would investigate the issue and "where necessary, we will further tighten security."
Harpiken explained that a probe "could make it appear as if someone on the inside deliberately leaked information. That is not likely."
He added, "It's too certain to say for sure, but it's no secret that the Nobel Institute is subject to espionage. It is obvious that the institution is of interest to actors who want to acquire information, both states and other organisations. The motives can be both political and economic. This has been going on for many decades."
Israeli connection
US President Donald Trump, who has long sought the Nobel Peace Prize, criticised the decision through his office, calling it “politics over peace”.
Critics highlighted Machado’s previous support for Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party, accusing her of backing “the genocide in Gaza”.
In one past statement, she wrote, “The struggle of Venezuela is the struggle of Israel,” later calling Israel a “genuine ally of freedom.”
Norwegian lawmaker Bjornar Moxnes noted that Machado had signed a cooperation document with Likud in 2020, arguing the award “contradicts Nobel’s purpose.”
Post her win, she courted another controversy: that if elected in Venezuela, she would move her country’s embassy in Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
"I believe, and I can announce, that our government will move our Israeli embassy to Jerusalem," Machado said in an interview with an Israeli channel.
"I promise one day, we'll have a close relationship between Venezuela and Israel. That will be part of our support to the State of Israel,” she added.
